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Whatever happens in abutting month’s accepted election, it is adamantine to see how Theresa May can win. If Boris Johnson gets a aldermanic majority and is able to force his adaptation of Brexit through, he will be the one who did what she couldn’t, who got the abetment of the voters area she failed, who reopened a accord she said was closed, and who bedeviled his moment aback she didn’t dare. It will be his victory. On the added hand, if Johnson comes a cropper at the acclamation and Brexit ends up balked again, May will go bottomward in the annual of her affair as the PM who blown their best adventitious to save Brexit and to save themselves. He will be the abatement guy. But she will get the ultimate blame.

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Anthony Seldon’s all-embracing central annual of May’s administering in Downing Street offers little armament for anyone acquisitive to arise a defence of her premiership. Based on all-encompassing interviews with all the key players (except the PM herself), his book portrays May as a breakable and bank politician, incurious, adamant and ultimately out of her depth. She has her moments – he commends her administering of the Salisbury poisonings, for archetype – but on the accomplished she comes above as anchored in her angle aback she bare to be open, yet changeable aback she bare to act: a baleful combination.

Some of Seldon’s judgments are withering. He says May should accept accepted the astronomic challenges that the acclamation aftereffect airish for the accomplished of the UK and the abysmal adversity of the choices she faced. “Any ability of history would accept told her these were not accustomed decisions. But she knew no history.” Seldon calls it “one of the affliction failures of acuteness and opportunity” by any PM aback 1945.

She didn’t accept the present either. One of the mysteries of the aboriginal appearance of the Brexit negotiations was how continued it took the UK government to acknowledge the awkward botheration airish by the Irish border. On Seldon’s account, this was partly bottomward to arduous benightedness on May’s part. “She showed no understanding, because she artlessly didn’t understand, that it was the EU’s community abutment and the distinct bazaar which fabricated accessible the dismantling of the adamantine border.” You would anticipate addition ability accept told her. The botheration was that she didn’t apperceive how to accept to what she didn’t appetite to hear.

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Yet this book is not absolutely as adverse as it appears, because Seldon’s access is flawed. By relying so heavily on claimed affidavit from the bodies involved, he is about trading in post-hoc rationalisations. May at 10 is not so altered from Tim Shipman’s All Out War and Abatement Out, which awning abundant of the aforementioned arena in alike added asthmatic detail (Seldon occasionally relies on Shipman’s annual to ample in gaps in his own). But while Shipman – a announcer – never pretends to be alms annihilation added than a communicative annual of back-stabbing and score-settling, Seldon – a historian – wants to be accomplishing article more. So he interposes his own absolute verdicts on the contest he describes. The botheration is that it’s not bright area these verdicts appear from.

For instance, he says that May was appropriate to alarm an acclamation in 2017 and abandoned has herself to accusation for the crushing outcome. He lists six things that went amiss (from the adulterated acclamation to her afraid and automatic behaviour on the attack trail), and he places ultimate albatross for anniversary at her door. What’s missing, though, is any faculty of the added political context. Yes, May was a abhorrent campaigner. But how does Seldon apperceive that the attack was the basis annual of her failure?

The accuracy is that the Tories did not underperform in 2017 – May got about the vote allotment that was predicted by the acclamation aback she alleged the acclamation and added than any Conservative baton aback John Major. What acquired all her difficulties was that the action vote accidentally coalesced about Labour – it was the falling abroad of Lib Dem, Green and Ukip abutment that did for her. Could she accept prevented that? Maybe she could accept been added animate to the risks, but abundant of what happened – including Labour’s awful able under-the-radar amusing media attack – was out of her hands. Some of her accent during the acclamation came from her faculty of her own powerlessness. But Seldon wants to accomplish it all about her.

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This awful personalised access agency best of the book’s verdicts chronicle to individuals and their characters, for bigger and for worse. Some appear out actual well. Seldon seems decidedly ardent of Philip May, the PM’s husband, whom he describes as a accompaniment of “consummate skill” and one of the key abstracts of her absolute administration. But he provides actual little affirmation for what Philip May absolutely contributed, above actuality loyal and admiring throughout all his wife’s travails. It is adamantine to abstain the cessation that there is some bendable sexism at assignment actuality – what fabricated it arresting was that a bedmate was assuming a role we commonly accessory with prime ministers’ wives.

The actuality who emerges best is Jeremy Heywood, the arch of the civilian service, whose abortive afterlife in backward 2018 beggared the government of its wisest advocate and safest brace of hands. This acumen is adamantine to altercate with. He was not aloof consistently helpful, he was additionally solicitous, admitting some able-bodied battles with May and her entourage. Aback the PR adversity of her tin-eared acknowledgment to the Grenfell blaze larboard her acutely exposed, Heywood texted a adolescent official in No 10 to say: “We bootless her. We deserve the accusation for this, not her.” That others should accept been so forgiving.

Heywood stabilised May’s administering afterwards the adverse acclamation aftereffect affected her to canal abiding appropriate admiral Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill. With Heywood’s loss, things began to break afresh and her Brexit action absent its way. But May was far from actuality abandoned in the misjudgments she made. It’s bright that about anybody on the UK ancillary blurred the likelihood that the EU would catch beneath pressure. Equally, the EU’s arch players fundamentally blurred how British backroom works. Martin Selmayr, arch of agents to Jean-Claude Juncker and an EU powerbroker in his own right, was afraid to ascertain that Corbyn did not accept May’s adaptable number. “I would accept accepted that the baton of Her Majesty’s action and the Prime Minister ability allege at atomic two or three times a anniversary on the buzz alone and accept a continuing advice band to break this matter.” Really? The British anticipation the Europeans would behave like them and canal their allegorical attempt aback the activity got tough. The Europeans anticipation the British would behave like them and stitch up a accommodation aback they bare one. May ability accept been tin-eared, but it was a chat of the deafened all round.

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Seldon is absorbed in the what-ifs of Brexit and he identifies some key moments aback it could all accept been different, if abandoned one or two bodies had afflicted their tune. He says that aloof afore the third and final allusive vote on May’s deal, Steve Baker of the ERG assuredly absitively to ancillary with the government, potentially bringing abundant Brexit diehards with him to get the accord over the line. He went to the appointment of the DUP’s Nigel Dodds to acquaint him of his decision, but because Dodds wasn’t there Baker had time to reconsider, and he concluded up alteration his apperception afresh a few hours later. Seldon remarks: “On such flutters of a butterfly’s wings do abundant contest hinge.” Yet what abiding Baker to aback bottomward was bumping into a brace of his adolescent Brexit hardliners who told him he was crazy to aback May. So conceivably this butterfly didn’t accept absolutely the access Seldon thinks.

In the end, there apparently is no defence of May’s premiership: she was dogged, she was determined, but Seldon is appropriate that she lacked the abilities and the ability to cross the Brexit minefield. However, by authoritative it so abundant about the individuals anxious – their feuds, their foibles, their resentments and abjure – he does her time in appointment a disservice. The added adventure included abounding factors above any of their ability to control. This awful personalised annual of the May years purports to annual for the abortive and aberrant accompaniment of accepted British politics. But it is additionally a evidence of what it seeks to explain.

• Area Ability Stops by David Runciman is appear by Profile. May at 10 by Anthony Seldon, with Raymond Newell, is appear by Biteback (£20). To adjustment a archetype go to guardianbookshop.com or alarm 020-3176 3837. Free UK p&p over £15, online orders only. Buzz orders min p&p of £1.99.

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